Reading the jobs numbers in the booklet

Where Xidig members may contribute

• Better estimates: economists and project analysts can show how to estimate jobs transparently.
• Sector checks: members in fisheries, energy or ports can say whether a figure is realistic.
• Skills matching: jobs need trained people. See Skills map.

Possible services, research, supplier or collaboration roles

• A simple, open method for estimating project jobs, with direct, indirect, temporary and permanent jobs shown separately.
• Research on how many jobs completed projects in Somalia actually created.
• Training in jobs-impact assessment for project planners.

Who may find this useful

• Journalists and researchers quoting job figures.
• Investors reviewing proposals.
• Young people and job seekers wondering what these projects could mean.
• Officials preparing future project sheets.

The eleven job figures

The eleven job figures, as printed:

¹ The deep-seaport cost is printed in a notation that needs confirmation; see Reader's notes.

Other sheets mention "Job creation" or "employment opportunities" without a number, including meat processing, dairy, poultry, the Mogadishu Stadium and waste management. The other 26 sheets give no job number.

How to read the numbers

What the words mean.

• Direct jobs are jobs in the project itself. Indirect jobs are in its suppliers. Induced jobs come from workers spending their wages. The World Bank defines direct impacts as those "in/for treated entity(ies)" and indirect impacts as those "beyond" it.
• Gross versus net: the International Labour Organization notes that most such models are "not designed to capture 'net' job creation", because new projects may "displace their competitors". A new fish plant may take workers and customers from existing traders.
• Temporary versus permanent: the World Bank's guidance asks: "Are the jobs being created likely to remain after the intervention is completed?" Construction jobs end; operating jobs continue.
• A comparison point: a proper estimate compares the situation with and without the project, not just before and after.

None of the eleven sheets says which of these it means, except that three say "direct" (and one of them also gives "indirect" jobs).

Jobs per dollar vary enormously (Xidig's arithmetic).

Jobs promised per US$1 million of stated cost, by sheet. The deep seaports are excluded because their cost notation is unclear.

• Some variation is normal: a dry dock or gas plant needs a lot of capital per worker, while farming or fishing needs more people.
• But a range from under one to about 580 jobs per million dollars suggests the figures were not made with a common method.

One figure to question: the solar panel factory.

• The sheet promises "approximately 2900 direct jobs" from a US$5 million plant.
• An International Renewable Energy Agency study found that assembling the solar modules for a 50 MW plant takes about 10,535 person-days of work.
• By Xidig's arithmetic, that is roughly one full-time job per megawatt of modules made each year. On that basis, 2,900 assembly jobs would mean making roughly 2,500 MW of panels a year, which is far beyond what a US$5 million plant could produce. The IRENA data are from 2017; automation has since reduced the labour needed per megawatt, which makes the figure even less plausible.
• The figure may include installers or sellers, or may be a typing error. It is a question to put to the promoters.

Somalia's labour market.

• Official survey (2019): the Somali National Bureau of Statistics found "The total unemployment rate for those aged 15 and over for Somalia was 21.4 percent", and youth (15–24) unemployment of 37.4%. Only 32.4% of working-age people were in the labour force. The survey covered accessible areas, and no newer labour force survey has been published.
• Modelled estimates (ILO, via the World Bank, 2025): unemployment of 18.9% and youth unemployment of 34.2%. The labour force is about 3.56 million people.
• Growth: by Xidig's arithmetic from the same modelled data, the labour force grew by about 114,000 people between 2024 and 2025.
• Scale: even the largest booklet figure, 9,000 direct jobs for the deep seaports, is less than one-tenth of one year's growth in the labour force.
• Youth: the booklet says people under 35 are about 70% of the population (p.7). Survey measures of youth unemployment use ages 15–24, so the two figures are not comparable.

The national plan's jobs targets. The NTP Executive Summary aims to cut youth unemployment "from 30.1% in 2024 to 25%" by 2029. It sets sector job targets: over 23,800 in fisheries, 15,000 in energy and extractives and over 35,000 in infrastructure and logistics. The summary does not say where the 30.1% baseline comes from.

• By Xidig's arithmetic, the deep-seaport sheet alone (21,000 direct and indirect jobs) equals about 60% of the NTP's infrastructure jobs target.

What is known about job creation so far. The World Bank's evaluation of its Somalia programme (2025) says job creation, anticipated in its country strategies, has "yet to see greater engagement by the World Bank". Xidig found no independent evaluation measuring jobs created by investment projects in Somalia.

Dependencies and implementation constraints

• Jobs appear only if a project is financed and built.
• Skills: many jobs need trained workers.
• Local hiring rules: the 2015 Foreign Investment Law requires at least half of a foreign investor's staff to be local citizens.

Risks and unknowns

• Overstated promises that create false expectations.
• Displacement: new projects may replace existing jobs.
• Temporary work: construction jobs that end when building finishes.
• Adding up: summing figures made with different methods gives a misleading total.

Questions members should verify before acting

1. How was a job figure estimated, and by whom?
2. Are the jobs direct or indirect, construction or operation, full-time or seasonal?
3. How many would go to local workers, and with what skills?
4. What would happen to existing jobs in the sector?

What is confirmed, and what isn't

Confirmed

• The eleven job figures, as printed.
• The 2019 labour force survey results and ILO modelled estimates.
• The NTP's jobs targets.

Our interpretation

• The figures were not produced with a common method.
• The solar panel factory figure looks far too high.

Not yet verified

• How any of the booklet's figures were calculated.
• Newer official labour-market data.

Relevant next steps

• When quoting a booklet job figure, call it "the booklet's estimate" and give the sheet.
• Ask the promoting ministry or SOMINVEST for the basis of any figure you plan to use.