Fodder, drought and herd survival in Somalia

Where Xidig members may contribute

Skills, service and collaboration openings, not confirmed contracts or tenders:

• Irrigated fodder: agronomy and small-scale irrigation along the rivers.
• Hay and silage: cutting, baling and storage, and running the machines.
• Feed formulation: rations for export animals, dairy and poultry.
• Farmer organisation: savings groups and cooperatives that grow and sell fodder.
• Data: tracking fodder prices and stocks before droughts.

Possible services, research, supplier or collaboration roles

• A members' fodder store in one district, buying after the rains and selling in the dry season.
• A hay-baling service shared by several farmer groups.
• Research: mapping who sells fodder in your region, and at what price.

Who may find this useful

• Agronomists and irrigation engineers.
• Livestock nutritionists and veterinarians.
• Livestock traders and exporters.
• Cooperative and microfinance specialists.

Feed, drought and herds

The herd.

• Size: FAO estimates "57 million animals, including 30.5 million goats, 13 million sheep, 6.6 million camels, and 5.5 million cattle".
• Livelihoods: the Ministry of Livestock's strategy says about 23% of people are agro-pastoralists. The government and FAO say livestock supports about 60% of the population (Dawan Africa, May 2026).

Feed shortages.

• Scale: the African Union's livestock bureau (AU-IBAR) reports "chronic feed deficits of 10-60% even in non-drought years" (February 2026). FAO puts the national feed deficit at 34%.
• Low input: the ministry describes production as "a traditional low-input grazing and browsing system", with "very limited commercial feed/fodder production".

Drought losses.

• 2021–22: FSNAU estimated that "3 million livestock died in Somalia between July 2021 and April 2022".
• Over a decade: AU-IBAR counts over 10 million animals lost, including 6.4 million in 2016–17 and 3.8 million in 2021–22.
• Late 2025: FEWS NET warned that "current rangeland conditions are already worse than those observed during the historic poor 2016/2017 and 2021/2022" seasons.
• 2026: the September 2026 food-security analysis (IPC) found herds "remain well below baseline levels". It gave a "75% chance" of a historic El Niño in October–December; FAO forecasts well above-average rain for that season, "heightening the risk of floods" (GIEWS, September 2026).

What is being done.

• Galmudug and Puntland (Denmark-funded, with FAO): 20,000 kg of fodder seed went to 4,000 beneficiaries, 11 storage facilities were built and cutting machines supplied, organised through more than 133 village savings groups. "We no longer watch our animals suffer when the rains fail" (FAO, September 2025).
• Wider FAO portfolio (US$70M): half of it goes to fodder value chains. FAO reported that the proportion of households growing fodder rose by 44% (October 2025).
• World Bank Food Systems Resilience Project (US$150M plus US$30M): it includes fodder seed distribution, community fodder stores and pasture re-seeding. Its rangeland work was still at a preparatory stage in July 2025.
• National policy: a draft National Feed Policy and fodder strategy were under review in February 2026 (AU-IBAR), and the ministry said in May 2026 it was finalising the policy (Dawan Africa). AU-IBAR describes a planned "carcass levy" (a small charge at slaughter or export) and targets strategic fodder reserves by February 2027.
• Prosopis: in Somaliland, the invasive Prosopis tree covers "at least 550,000 hectares". FAO pilots have turned its pods into animal feed.

What this means.

• The proposal's size: at US$1.9M, the government's proposal is small next to donor spending.
• Where it fits best: it would add most as a commercial supplier to feed reserves, export holding grounds and dairy farms, which are buyers that pay year-round.

Dependencies and implementation constraints

• Water and land for irrigated fodder.
• Storage: fodder spoils if stored badly.
• Machinery and spare parts.
• Buyers who pay in dry seasons, not only in emergencies.

Risks and unknowns

• Climate: repeated droughts and floods.
• Aid distortion: free feed during droughts can undercut local sellers.
• Prices: Xidig found no reliable fodder price data.
• Timing: feed reserves depend on the proposed levy being adopted.

Questions members should verify before acting

1. Who grows and sells fodder in your area now?
2. What does a bale or bag cost in wet and dry seasons?
3. Is there water and land for irrigated fodder?
4. Who would buy stored fodder: exporters, dairies or government reserves?

What is confirmed, and what isn't

Confirmed

• The FAO herd estimate and feed shortage.
• The drought losses (FSNAU, AU-IBAR).
• The FAO and World Bank fodder programmes.
• The draft feed policy and fodder strategy under review (AU-IBAR, February 2026).

Our interpretation

• A fodder business would add most by supplying buyers who pay year-round.

Not yet verified

• Fodder prices and traded volumes.
• The adoption of the feed policy, the carcass levy and fodder reserves.

Relevant next steps

• Follow the Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range for the feed policy and reserves.
• Share local fodder prices through Xidig.